The auto industry in China has developed for 50 years and is still a rickets disease. Over the past few years, the buzz of the auto market and the voracious competition of various cars have not meant that the Chinese auto industry has made great progress. When we announced the achievements of the auto industry, the most mentioned is how to increase production and sales. In fact, as early as possible, One year ago, people of insight in the industry decided that the current Chinese car market fever was a virtual fire.
1. KD winds intensified In 2002, there was an explosive growth in domestic production and sales of cars, reaching 1.09 million vehicles and 1.126 million vehicles, respectively, with an increase of 55% and 56%. However, while auto manufacturers are eager to celebrate, we cannot but face up to the fact that of the more than 300,000 cars produced in the country last year, about 170,000 were produced in KD mode. This year, more and more trends show that KD winds will intensify.
The reason is that the Chinese auto industry's KD approach is very popular. It is simply that it needs only low input, but it brings the output of “profiteering†and it is simple and quick. According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, in 2002 the sales revenue of the auto industry was 151.5 billion yuan, an increase of 30.8% over the previous year, and a profit of 43.1 billion yuan, an increase of 60.94%. The industry's average profit margin was 28.45%. The profit of individual high-end sedan companies was profitable. The rate is as much as more than 10 million. At present, the average profit rate of the entire society is between 10% and 15%, which is more than twice the social average profit rate. It is probably not excessive to call it “profiteeringâ€. In foreign countries, it takes at least 3 to 5 years to invest in a new factory to obtain profits. It is very difficult for the profit rate to reach 3%-4%.
On another level, in the short term, domestic auto makers have made a lot of money using the KD method, but from a long-term point of view, this mode of operation is tantamount to quenching thirst. This phenomenon may be a unique phenomenon on the road to the development of China's auto industry. 20 years ago, China began to engage in the localization of automobiles. The major manufacturers took KD for granted, but after 20 years, they took a reincarnation. We are still doing KD. This is very unusual. In the international arena, KD is at best a "method of trade," but in China it has become an efficient "production method." The popularity of KD has caused three major “injuries†to the Chinese auto industry: First, due to the large number of imported foreign parts assembled in China, the domestic parts industry will not be able to develop; secondly, the interests of consumers will be damaged. It will directly increase the burden on domestic consumers. Once again, KD will cause irreparable damage to the Chinese auto industry. Parts and components are short-lived, and it will indiscriminately consume the precious time of the development of the Chinese auto industry. The ability to design can not be improved, and the level of manufacturing and the process can not be exercised, and it will fall into a vicious circle where the ability to rely on more, more dependent on the lack of ability. After China's accession to the WTO, the protection period for the automotive industry will end in 2006. By then, if the Chinese auto companies do not have the ability to self-develop and self-design, the consequences will be disastrous.
2. Unconsciously turning to the Brazilian model A recent report from the National Bureau of Statistics states: “When all parties face the argument that China’s auto industry should adopt the Korean model or the Brazilian model, China’s auto industry has unconsciously turned to the Brazilian model. “The Brazilian model, which has been arguing for more than 10 years in a matter of ten years, finally reached a certain realistic basis after opening up the auto industry for 20 years, facing a sudden drop in production and sales and an increase in inventories. , Accustomed to the rapid growth of the automotive industry is somewhat dazed. Not only was the production and sales ratio of autos dropped by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year in the first seven months of the year, but the inventory of finished goods also increased from a drop of 1.4% at the end of April to a rise of 27.1%. At the same time as the increase in inventories and production capacity, it was a billion. The continuous infusion of US dollar capital is exactly the same as Brazil in the 1990s.
----- Santana 2000, Sail, Palio, all from Brazil, which we have always dismissed. Does Barbour East blow, is it just a coincidence?
-----The same developing countries with vast territory have experienced rapid economic growth. At the same time, the auto industry that started almost at the same time, the major multinational companies have all set up camps, and most of the car products are wearing the brand of a multinational company. Now The Chinese auto industry looks very much like Brazil in the 1990s.
----- James Creight, an American expert in automobile issues, recently stated that the situation in the Chinese auto market is that foreign companies are chasing bubbles, which is very risky and somewhat similar to that in Brazil. People once predicted that Brazil’s 1998 automobile sales could reach 5 million. But in fact, Brazil’s sales have never reached more than 2 million vehicles. According to Crete, China seems to be repeating the path Brazil has taken.
However, although similar, China is not yet Brazil. The typical characteristic of the Brazilian model is that foreign capital occupies a dominant position, and the Brazilian automotive industry controlled by foreign capital is a giant assembly shop. The other is a large amount of idle production capacity - Brazil's auto industry currently has 1.1 million to 1.3 million capacity is idle.
The above situation has not yet emerged in our country. As of the end of 2002, the proportion of foreign investment in the Chinese auto industry was 24.4%, and the proportion of foreign investment in the car manufacturing industry was 33.7%. In China's current auto industry policy, the foreign capital ratio has been limited to no more than 50%. It is said that in the forthcoming new automobile industry policy, this restriction has not relaxed. Of course, this shareholding ratio of 20 years is already the bottom line in foreign joint ventures, and is under increasing pressure.
In the opinion of the National Development and Reform Commission of the administrative examination and approval department, although China is not yet Brazil, the tendency to approach the Brazilian model is particularly dangerous. If investment risk is not considered in the market, it will inevitably cause investment fever and excess production capacity. Some enterprises must be eliminated in the market competition, which will lead to the increase of bank bad debts, unemployment of workers, and serious consequences of bankruptcy.
3. The new policy is still on the way to the present At present, there are serious flaws in the four major categories of policies that have a guiding role in China's auto market. It seems that the new policies that are being formulated or are about to be introduced are still on their way. China's auto market does not have a sound regulatory system. The automobile industry industrial policy, consumer policy, sales policy, and financial policy that are being formulated also show the tendency to “sell†and “manageâ€: Industrial policy still emphasizes the examination and approval system, and approval The entry is very detailed; the sales policy stipulates a single "brand monopoly" approach to sales rather than diversification; consumer policy still restricts the purchase of private cars, and fears too many private cars; financial policy essentially requires the four major state-owned banks to engage in Monopoly, foreign institutions were restricted, and other domestic institutions were also restricted.
The new automobile industry industrial policy and the auto brand monopoly policy may be forcibly introduced. However, these two policies have caused a lot of buzz, especially the brand monopoly policy. There is almost no praise for it. Auto finance policy is not only dissatisfied with foreign-funded institutions, but even dissatisfied with major auto groups in the country.
China's existing 123 auto OEMs, which are in a state of semi-perishable possession of a considerable proportion, due to the government's auto industry approval system, resulting in the automotive industry, new companies can not enter, and the damn can not afford to die, the result It became a pool of stagnant water. The remedy of market defects cannot be accomplished by relying on government alternatives but depends on market development. In accordance with the rules of the market, there should be some in and out, there are deaths and deaths, then mergers, alliances, reorganizations, and ultimately a lively, lively, and active market.
The industry policy of the new automobile industry is still pending, there are many flaws in the automobile consumption policy, the automobile finance policy has not revealed the truth, and the sales policy of the automobile “brand monopoly†has been criticized.... The rapid development of the Chinese automobile market in recent years, The lags and deficiencies of relevant laws and regulations have become more and more prominent, and these lags and flaws have increasingly severely constrained the advancement of the Chinese auto industry.
4. Advantage is Localization Service As we all know, China’s auto industry has obvious disadvantages in terms of product development, technology, and brand building compared with foreign companies, and it is difficult to catch up in a short time. However, we also have the advantage that localization services, whether it is the network layout, parts supply, prices, labor costs, etc., are not comparable to foreign companies. How to make good use of this advantage, attracting many users, is related to the prosperity of the maintenance service industry, and even the healthy development of the Chinese automobile industry.
With the increasingly fierce competition in the automotive industry and the increasing homogeneity of products, services are increasingly becoming the key to the auto companies' efforts to create brand loyalty and gain advantages, and the trend of economic service is becoming increasingly apparent. After-sales service is the only industry that domestic auto companies can compete with imported brands. Regarding the number of points for repair stations, Shanghai Volkswagen, for example, has more than 500 in the country, and there is a special maintenance station every five kilometers in Beijing; parts are cheap, such as the front windshield of POLO vehicles, and the price of imported parts. It was 1,628.14 yuan, while domestically produced parts were only 909.23 yuan, which was 700 yuan less than imported parts.
At present, most consumers have entered a misunderstanding. They always believe that the quality of imported parts is better than that of domestic ones. This is not the case. As early as 1985 after the birth of Shanghai Volkswagen, China gradually established auto parts and components companies. For more than a decade, it has cooperated with world-famous parts and accessories companies such as Delphi, Bosch, and Visteon. The quality of products is impeccable. The technical equipment and management manpower invested by domestic enterprises in the aftermarket are unmatched by importers. SAIC-Volkswagen has 24 service centers nationwide. Each center is staffed with two professional managers who are responsible for on-site management and technical support. They provide free 24-hour calls and establish customer service centers.
Domestic manufacturers (including those investing in China) attach great importance to after-sales service. In the just-concluded 2002 "Best Car Dealer of the Year" appraisal event, Shanghai GM's dealers reached the top of the list. The well-established and carefully nurtured and maintained service brand “Buick Care†has won wide acclaim from the market and users with its good image of “caring more about you than youâ€. According to a survey conducted by the US auto industry, a satisfied customer can trigger 8 potential businesses. An unsatisfied customer will affect 25 individuals' purchase willingness. The cost of winning a new customer is 6 times that of an old customer. . It can be seen that the service is of great importance. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to give full play to the advantages of services and to increase the size of the cake in the aftermarket of the automobile.
China’s auto market is at a critical moment in its development. To solve the auto market problem in China, we must face the above unavoidable facts. Any empty words are useless. It is important to take the determination and measures for change to make the Chinese auto industry. The overall level has been improved.
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