In 2007, the truck market delivered a surprising response. Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in 2007 truck sales increased by more than 24% year-on-year, and heavy truck sales increased by more than 60% year-on-year, much higher than the growth rate of the car market and the automobile industry; as of November 2007, the production and sales volume of the truck market It reached 1,988,800 units and 1,976,800 units respectively, surpassing the total annual production and sales volume of 234,900 units and 312,000 units in 2006. The year-on-year growth rates of 24.94% and 24.84% also increased by 15 percentage points from the same period of 2006.
The rapid growth of the truck market in 2007 undoubtedly benefited from the heavy blowout of heavy trucks; the change in the truck industry caused by drastic changes in the market situation is equally impressive; while the gradual implementation of the country's 3 emissions has left the development of the truck market in 2008. Suspense.
Heavy truck "blowout" waits Since March 2007, a new round of “blowouts†has swept the heavy-duty truck industry, with sales of more than 50,000 units for three months in a row. In April, the sales volume hit a record high of 53,929 vehicles. In the second half of the year, although monthly sales have shrunk, it has maintained a steady increase. In the first 11 months of 2007, heavy-duty trucks have sold 451,000 vehicles, and it has no suspense to break 480,000 vehicles throughout the year.
In this regard, Yuan Hongming, executive deputy general manager of Shaanxi Auto Group, listed four “blowout†incentives for reporters. The first is the market's rising demand for heavy truck power. In 2007, 280 hp or more heavy trucks became the mainstream in the market. In the first 11 months, 280 hp or more heavy trucks grew by more than 100%, and the sales volume reached 345,000. At the same time, 10L and 12L heavy-duty trucks have become development trends. Followed by a substantial increase in the demand for tractors. From January to November, the sales volume of tractors increased by 104.9%, far exceeding the average growth rate of the heavy truck industry. The freight transport of medium-to-long-distance highways has gradually shifted to the tractor transportation mode. The third is the new products that are suitable for weight-based charging. The toll-by-weight system changes the demand for heavy-duty truck products. With the continuous expansion of the region, new products such as 6×2 tractors are rapidly increasing in quantity, and low-weight and high-efficiency fuel-efficient heavy trucks are favored by users. The fourth is that with the rapid upgrading of China's heavy-duty truck products and the improvement of after-sales services, heavy truck exports have achieved unprecedented breakthroughs.
Although heavy-duty truck blowouts were rampant in the first half of 2007, there was a noticeable slowdown in the growth rate in the second half of the year, and people in the industry generally believed that the influence of good factors for pulling heavy trucks has weakened. Then whether the "blowout" "stamina" will continue into 2008 will become a new focus.
Yuan Hongming believes that tightening monetary policy, curbing investment in fixed assets, controlling GDP growth, and rising fuel prices will all affect demand for heavy trucks. In 2008, these impacts will be concentrated. At the same time, the total number of heavy-duty vehicles in the entire society has exceeded 2.3 million, and the situation of tight transport capacity has been fundamentally alleviated. In 2008, the heavy truck market demand characteristics will be the internal adjustment of product structure. Therefore, it is difficult for the heavy truck market in 2008 to reach the level of 2007.
From the perspective of macroeconomics, the economic growth rate for 2008 determined at the 2007 Central Economic Work Conference is expected to be around 10%. Although the growth rate has slowed down significantly, the total demand is considerable. Economic growth still has a significant driving effect on the heavy truck market demand. Therefore, the heavy-duty truck market in 2008 will still maintain stable growth, but the blow-out situation will be difficult to reproduce.
New and old forces who lead the coquettish In 2007, the slaughter of old and big companies and the rise of new-born companies caused a fierce shock in the truck industry. Compared with other markets that are relatively calm, this phenomenon has been prominent in the heavy-duty market where demand is intensely spurt.
Since surpassing FAW in August, China National Heavy Duty Trucks has been leading the heavy truck industry with strong momentum. As of December 19, 2007, China National Heavy Duty Truck produced and sold 100,000 heavy-duty vehicles year-on-year, up 70% year-on-year; its sales revenue was 33 billion yuan, an increase of 86% year-on-year. The structure of China’s heavy truck First Corps has since been rewritten. China National Heavy Duty Trucks has successfully entered the First Corps and has taken the top spot while ranking among the top five heavy truck manufacturers in the world.
At the same time, Dongfeng and FAW, the two veteran companies in the First Corps, were not far behind and launched the Dongfeng Tianlong series heavy trucks on May 18, 2006 and July 15, 2007, respectively. The sixth-generation heavy truck liberation J6, officially began to build heavy truck replacement product platform.
At present, the sales volume of Dongfeng Tianlong and Hercules has exceeded 20,000, and the structural adjustment of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles has been fully completed. Nakamura Katsumi, president of Dongfeng Co., Ltd., made it clear that Dongfeng Tianlong Hercules will occupy more market share in 2008, completely reversing the poor market share of heavy vehicles. At the same time, FAW Jiefang also announced its 130,000 production and sales targets in 2008, of which exports reached 12,000.
In contrast, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group proposed to ensure 125,000 heavy-duty trucks for production and sales in 2008, and strive to achieve the goal of 135,000 vehicles; of which 20,000 are exported and 25,000 are to be achieved. At the same time, China National Heavy Duty Truck has successfully developed a new generation of heavy truck N07 (product code) will also be available on the market, when China Heavy Truck is undoubtedly even more powerful. It can be predicted that the leading battle in the heavy truck industry in 2008 will be extremely fierce.
Despite the demise of the old leading companies, the competition between Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Foton Auman became another major aspect of the truck market in 2007. Although these two companies have not yet reached the first legion, they have both produced and sold more than 60,000 vehicles. The three-digit increase in volume and momentum cannot be ignored. It is understood that Shaanxi Auto has set the production and sales target for 2008 at 80,000 units. As the fastest growing dark horse, it is expected to perform in the future.
In 2007, there was one more spoiler in the truck industry - SAIC. As one of the most powerful automobile groups in China, commercial vehicles are the biggest shortboard of SAIC. In order to make up for this deficiency, Shanghai Automotive and its parent company, SAIC, have been working on commercial vehicle projects in 2007. In the first half of 2007, SAIC Motor Corporation established the Commercial Vehicle Division. After that, it successively acquired another 50% of Shanghai Huizhong, a subsidiary joint venture company, and established SAIC Iveco Hongyan Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd., and on December 26, contributed 20.95 yuan. 100 million yuan in mergers and acquisitions of vehicles and tight parts assets of Yuejin Group. This series of actions indicates that SAIC will bring huge changes to the truck market in 2008.
According to the data released by SAIC Iveco Hongyan recently, from January to November 2007, it sold 22,000 heavy trucks, which exceeded the best level in the same period in history; it is expected that the annual production and sales volume will reach 24,000 units in 2007, an increase of more than 70% year-on-year. . In 2008, SAIC Iveco Hongyan will launch a series of new products, including hybrid vehicles partially utilizing Iveco technology and original Iveco standard vehicles to be launched in the second half of 2008. Its sales target for 2008 is 30,000 vehicles. , And strive to .. 50,000 vehicles.
National 3 Implementation Challenges In 2007, some regional markets began to sell trucks with National 3 emissions standards, but neither the sales nor the types of products are satisfactory. According to relevant business sources, the implementation of the National 3 emissions will result in a substantial increase in the cost of car purchases and the use of the users: a light truck that meets the national 3 emission standards will have an increase of approximately 20,000 yuan compared to the standard 2 car; For heavy trucks, the cost of car purchases will increase by 60,000 to 80,000 yuan. The increase in cost accounts for more than one third of the current mainstream truck product cost. Lin Wei, secretary-general of the China National Light Commercial Vehicles Association, admitted to the reporter that the implementation of the National 3 Standards may cause the low-end light trucks to face extreme disasters.
The year 2008 was a year when emissions regulations really had a real impact on commercial vehicle companies. According to the requirements of the “Light Vehicle Pollutants Emission Limits and Measurement Methods (China III, IV Phase)†issued by the State Environmental Protection Administration, all auto manufacturers stopped production and sales of the country’s two cars on January 1, 2008. At the same time, with the full implementation of the State 3 standard, the entire industrial chain of the heavy truck industry is facing challenges, including the issue of how the engines and oil products meet the standards.
According to industry analysts, the truck industry will face the dual pressure of overall price increases and sales growth, which may cause temporary overall cooling.
Although the National 3 standard will cause truck companies to suffer a certain impact on sales, Lin Wei believes that such pains must be sustained. "The major cities now have serious traffic jams and serious pollution. Implementing the country's 3 emission standards is an inevitable trend."
According to the reporter, at present, most commercial vehicle companies have stated that they have prepared for the introduction of advanced engines, personnel training, and maintenance equipment upgrades for the full implementation of the 2008 China 3 standard. Some experts predict that mainstream companies such as FAW, Dongfeng, and CNHTC will take advantage of the advantages of vehicle and engine integration, while emerging companies such as JAC and Hualing may also rely on the performance advantages of products to usher in a market turnaround.
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