Recently, due to a combination of factors, the price of yellow phosphorus has continued to slump for more than half a year. It has gradually climbed from 12,000 yuan (ton of net phosphate ton, the same below) to about 14,000 yuan at the end of November, and its market price trend has been observed. There seems to be an incentive to continue to rebound internally. However, given the tremendous changes in the domestic and international situation, it is no longer expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will return to the 30,000-yuan historical price that first appeared in the first half of last year. It is difficult to replicate the soaring prices last year. The reporter learned from the survey that the current price trend of yellow phosphorus is mainly affected by the following factors.
Many factors have pushed prices up. Not long ago, the relevant state departments announced that they raised the industrial electricity price by 2.8 cents/kWh. This is a direct booster of the market price of yellow phosphorus. As we all know, yellow phosphorus is a high-energy-consuming industry. The average power consumption per unit product is as high as 15,000 kWh. According to the price increase of 2.8 kWh/kWh, the manufacturing cost of yellow phosphorus will increase by 420 yuan, which is always running below the cost price. The yellow phosphorus industry is a very light burden, so companies that are already suffering have strong internal price increases. At the same time, due to climatic conditions, in Yunnan, Guizhou and other places in the Yellow Phosphorus province, this year has occurred a relatively rare history of drought, dry season appeared earlier, the local hydropower production capacity was severely constrained, thus limiting the yellow phosphorus production capacity, As a result, yellow phosphorus is generally not stocked. In addition, since the beginning of the winter, the above areas have encountered the impact of cold weather, ensuring that the people's livelihood and the use of electricity also make yellow phosphorus companies generally operate at low loads, and the spot is obviously insufficient.
In terms of market demand, the downstream phosphate industry generally chooses to purchase and store yellow phosphorus before the Spring Festival to avoid raw materials breaking off due to transport shortages. In particular, some phosphate processing companies that produce food additives in the east have entered the pre-holiday peak season. The concentrated purchase of yellow phosphorus has increased market tension in the short term. Taking these factors together, we can interpret why the yellow phosphorus prices have gradually increased in the near future.
There is no fundamental change in demand. However, the reporter learned from the interview that the overall situation of the phosphate market is not continuously expanding. Compared with previous years, the market still has a certain degree of shrinkage. This is mainly due to the impact of the international financial crisis and weak domestic demand. China is the world’s largest producer and exporter of phosphates. However, after the international financial crisis last year, sales volume has dropped significantly. Except for the advantageous enterprises with integrated electro-mine integration such as Hubei Xingfa Company, other phosphate processing companies Exports are generally blocked. Taking sodium tripolyphosphate, a main phosphate product, as an example, China exported 610 thousand tons in 2007 and exported 560,000 tons in 2008. This year it is expected to be about 450,000 tons, showing a tendency of declining year by year.
The domestic demand for phosphates has not fundamentally changed. New applications and new areas have not yet been effectively developed. The demand for yellow phosphorus and its primary products has even shrunk. It is reported that China's yellow phosphorus used in the production of pesticides originally consumed about 100,000 tons per year, but with the national restrictions on production and sales of methamidophos, methyl parathion, parathion, monocrotophos, phosphorus amines five kinds of high Since toxic organophosphorus pesticides, the demand for yellow phosphorus and phosphorus trichloride in the pesticide industry has been greatly reduced. At the same time, the popular market of glyphosate that was promoted by the international biofuel industry in the past two years was also at a low point due to the international financial crisis, and the demand for yellow phosphorus was sharply reduced. It is understood that the types and quantities of phosphates used in the industry in China are currently very limited, and sodium tripolyphosphate as a traditional detergent additive is also gradually withdrawing from the industry due to the rise of the environmental ban on phosphorus. As for the demand for phosphate additives for food additives, it only accounts for about 10% of the total amount of phosphate, and it depends on the food processing industry. The demand growth is slow. It can thus be seen that the lack of effective demand and the downstream phosphoric acid market for yellow phosphorus are not optimistic.
Latent production capacity constraints It is understood that China's current yellow phosphorus production capacity of more than 1.5 million tons, the annual effective demand is about 800,000 tons, there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand imbalances. Under the situation of sluggish prices, many production companies have adopted measures to restrict production or stop production, and the production capacity is in a latent state. Once the market warms up, production will recover, and a sharp increase in production in the short term will overwhelm the market and put the price of the product from heaven. Hit the ground. Looking at the price trajectory of yellow phosphorus in recent years, all of them are trapped in this “strange circleâ€. This is a question that industry players must seriously consider.
According to a survey conducted by the reporter, for the currently rising price of yellow phosphorus, yellow phosphorus companies in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Hubei are driving one after another. Some business executives told reporters that the market price of yellow phosphorus is already profitable. Moreover, the current price of phosphate ore is generally not high, and it has dropped from 300 yuan last year to 250 yuan now. They all said that, now that the market is in good condition, it is necessary to pay close attention to production and how much it can earn. It is feared that the last wave of money-making opportunities before the end of the year will be lost. However, if the industry is holding this mentality to catch up with this wave of market, regardless of the size of the device, the advantages and disadvantages, and then on, how long can this market hold?
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