Demand for oil will peak before supply
—— Experts Analyze the Trend of Global Oil Supply and Demand after the Financial Crisis On December 10, at the third oil market research results exchange meeting held in Beijing, Jiang Xuefeng, deputy chief engineer of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Economic and Technical Research Institute, predicted that the future international oil market will Presenting two new “rigid†patterns of supply and demand, and will promote the spiralling oil prices; coupled with the acceleration of global emission reduction policies after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the development of unconventional resources and renewable energy will accelerate, thus promoting the world’s energy to accelerate the transformation As a result, global oil demand has peaked before supply.
According to Jiang Xuefeng’s analysis, the world’s oil supply and demand pattern will change significantly in the future: On the one hand, the growth in oil demand will come mainly from non-OECD countries, while emerging market economies are in an era of accelerated industrialization and urbanization. Consumption will grow rapidly with economic development and make the future global oil demand more rigid; on the other hand, oil supply growth will be more dependent on OPEC oil producers, and under this new supply pattern, investment growth and supply capacity There will be a serious mismatch in growth and the global oil supply will also have rigid characteristics in the future.
Data from the China National Petroleum Corporation's Institute of Economics and Technology shows that the current demand for oil in OECD countries has entered a peak period. Since 2006, its oil demand has experienced negative growth year-on-year for three consecutive years. In the future, the growth of global oil demand will mainly come from non-OECD countries. Non-OECD countries’ oil consumption grew rapidly after the 1990s and will maintain a sustained and robust growth trend by 2030, especially in emerging market countries and the Middle East.
Due to the period of accelerating industrialization and urbanization, oil consumption in emerging market economies has grown rapidly along with economic development; and the main oil-consuming growth countries are countries that subsidize oil consumption, which has made non-OECD countries’ oil demand growth stronger. The rigid features. In addition, the decline in oil consumption in OECD countries will hardly offset the growth in consumption in non-OECD countries, and world oil demand will continue to grow.
On the supply side, conventional oil production in non-OPEC oil-producing countries has reached a peak. Since the mid-1990s, non-OPEC countries’ oil reserves have been in a “deficit†state, and each year production is 4 billion to 5 billion barrels more than new exploration reserves. Judging from the rate of decline in reserves, non-OPEC countries’ oil production is experiencing a decline or peak. The International Energy Agency predicts that non-OPEC conventional oil production will decline from 39.3 million barrels/day in 2008 to 35.30 million barrels/day in 2030. PFC Energy Consulting predicts that the difference between non-OPEC oil supply and world oil consumption will continue to expand. In the future, global oil supply growth will become more dependent on OPEC oil producers. By 2030, OPEC’s share of the oil market will come from the current 44% rose to 52%.
Jiang Xuefeng said that compared with more than 10 years ago, the world's major oil and gas producing countries have witnessed a significant drop in the discovery of new reserves. The remaining recoverable reserves are concentrated in OPEC and a few countries in Russia and Central Asia, which makes the combination of investment and quality resources obstructed. This led to an extremely mismatch between investment growth and supply capacity growth.
This is due first and foremost to the fact that the oil companies in these countries are responsible for the economic and social transfer payments, which often leads to their own lack of investment; secondly, they need to create a balance between supply and demand to control oil prices in a favorable range; again, these countries have political turmoil or external The tightening of cooperation policies has affected the combination of foreign capital and quality resources. According to statistics, the upstream investments of the world’s 50 largest oil companies have risen from about 150 billion U.S. dollars in 2000 to more than 360 billion U.S. dollars, with an average annual growth rate of 11%. The peak in 2008 was close to 500 billion U.S. dollars, while the oil production in the same period only increased. 1.8%.
Jiang Xuefeng pointed out that at present, financial speculation and the trend of the US dollar have become new fundamental factors in the international oil market, and its impact on oil prices will be long-term. The two "rigidities" of supply and demand provide conditions for the operation of speculative capital. It is expected that oil prices will spiral It rose and showed high volatility in the medium term.
He believes that in the absence of supply constraints, there are two possible world peak oil demand in advance: First, the emergence of breakthrough technology in hybrid and electric vehicles; Second, the large-scale replacement of natural gas for oil. According to analysis, if the global average energy efficiency of light vehicles is 50% higher than the current, the demand for gasoline in the United States will be 46% lower than the current; while natural gas resources are abundant, resources and investment are easy to combine, and development is cheap, price discounts on oil may result from The conversion of oil to natural gas.
According to Jiang Xuefeng’s analysis, the world’s oil supply and demand pattern will change significantly in the future: On the one hand, the growth in oil demand will come mainly from non-OECD countries, while emerging market economies are in an era of accelerated industrialization and urbanization. Consumption will grow rapidly with economic development and make the future global oil demand more rigid; on the other hand, oil supply growth will be more dependent on OPEC oil producers, and under this new supply pattern, investment growth and supply capacity There will be a serious mismatch in growth and the global oil supply will also have rigid characteristics in the future.
Data from the China National Petroleum Corporation's Institute of Economics and Technology shows that the current demand for oil in OECD countries has entered a peak period. Since 2006, its oil demand has experienced negative growth year-on-year for three consecutive years. In the future, the growth of global oil demand will mainly come from non-OECD countries. Non-OECD countries’ oil consumption grew rapidly after the 1990s and will maintain a sustained and robust growth trend by 2030, especially in emerging market countries and the Middle East.
Due to the period of accelerating industrialization and urbanization, oil consumption in emerging market economies has grown rapidly along with economic development; and the main oil-consuming growth countries are countries that subsidize oil consumption, which has made non-OECD countries’ oil demand growth stronger. The rigid features. In addition, the decline in oil consumption in OECD countries will hardly offset the growth in consumption in non-OECD countries, and world oil demand will continue to grow.
On the supply side, conventional oil production in non-OPEC oil-producing countries has reached a peak. Since the mid-1990s, non-OPEC countries’ oil reserves have been in a “deficit†state, and each year production is 4 billion to 5 billion barrels more than new exploration reserves. Judging from the rate of decline in reserves, non-OPEC countries’ oil production is experiencing a decline or peak. The International Energy Agency predicts that non-OPEC conventional oil production will decline from 39.3 million barrels/day in 2008 to 35.30 million barrels/day in 2030. PFC Energy Consulting predicts that the difference between non-OPEC oil supply and world oil consumption will continue to expand. In the future, global oil supply growth will become more dependent on OPEC oil producers. By 2030, OPEC’s share of the oil market will come from the current 44% rose to 52%.
Jiang Xuefeng said that compared with more than 10 years ago, the world's major oil and gas producing countries have witnessed a significant drop in the discovery of new reserves. The remaining recoverable reserves are concentrated in OPEC and a few countries in Russia and Central Asia, which makes the combination of investment and quality resources obstructed. This led to an extremely mismatch between investment growth and supply capacity growth.
This is due first and foremost to the fact that the oil companies in these countries are responsible for the economic and social transfer payments, which often leads to their own lack of investment; secondly, they need to create a balance between supply and demand to control oil prices in a favorable range; again, these countries have political turmoil or external The tightening of cooperation policies has affected the combination of foreign capital and quality resources. According to statistics, the upstream investments of the world’s 50 largest oil companies have risen from about 150 billion U.S. dollars in 2000 to more than 360 billion U.S. dollars, with an average annual growth rate of 11%. The peak in 2008 was close to 500 billion U.S. dollars, while the oil production in the same period only increased. 1.8%.
Jiang Xuefeng pointed out that at present, financial speculation and the trend of the US dollar have become new fundamental factors in the international oil market, and its impact on oil prices will be long-term. The two "rigidities" of supply and demand provide conditions for the operation of speculative capital. It is expected that oil prices will spiral It rose and showed high volatility in the medium term.
He believes that in the absence of supply constraints, there are two possible world peak oil demand in advance: First, the emergence of breakthrough technology in hybrid and electric vehicles; Second, the large-scale replacement of natural gas for oil. According to analysis, if the global average energy efficiency of light vehicles is 50% higher than the current, the demand for gasoline in the United States will be 46% lower than the current; while natural gas resources are abundant, resources and investment are easy to combine, and development is cheap, price discounts on oil may result from The conversion of oil to natural gas.
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