ACC Lowers Global Industry Growth Expectations Again
The mid-year forecast report 2012 American Chemical Council (ACC) recently released, once again lowered its growth forecast global chemical industry. According to the ACC, the slowdown in Europe’s economic recession is unlikely to improve, and the slowdown in China’s economic growth, the second largest economy in the world, will affect global GDP growth. Affected by this, the global demand for basic chemicals will shrink sharply this year, but special and specialty chemicals will still have strong demand. Although the total production of chemicals will continue to increase, the growth rate is expected to be lowered.
The ACC expects that the chemical demand differentiation this year will be even more serious. Affected by the continuous economic recession in Europe, the growth of the major downstream end markets, especially the construction and electronics industries, is weak and the demand for bulk chemicals has been significantly weakened. Cold manufacturing industry directly led to a sharp contraction in global demand for basic chemicals this year. The high cost encountering low demand will also make the operating environment of chemical companies, especially DuPont, Dow and other large chemical companies even more severe. The rebound in emerging market demand in the coming years and the outbreak of economic crisis in Europe will help the chemical industry resume growth. However, as the economy continues to recover slowly, the chemical industry will still face trade, tax and other policy risks. However, consumer products, agrochemicals, and specialty chemicals that are closely related to life are relatively less affected by the economic environment and demand will continue to grow strongly in 2012.
However, ACC stated that although the world economy is sluggish, lower energy prices will also cause consumers' spending to increase moderately. Global chemical production will continue to grow, with an increase of 2.3% in 2012, 4.3% in 2013, and 4.7% in 2014. The growth of chemical production in emerging regions will exceed the growth rate of production in developed regions, and the Asia-Pacific region (especially India), Africa, the Middle East and Latin America will all have strong growth. China will also continue to grow, but it will slow down over the past 10 years.
The report shows that the production of chemicals in the United States accounts for about 19% of the world. Demand for U.S. products will weaken due to the economic recession in Europe, which will lead to a slowdown in the U.S. chemical industry. It is speculated that the US chemical production in 2012 is expected to increase by 0.5%, and the growth rate in 2013 may be 2.3%. Among them, the output of basic chemicals will increase by 1.1% in 2012 and will increase by 2.2% in 2013; the output of specialty chemicals will increase by 5.1% and 3% in 2012 and 2013, respectively. The wealth of shale natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) has given US petrochemicals a competitive advantage.
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