Future compound fertilizer is the future theme of the industry

As China's agriculture stabilizes production and increases production is an important measure to ensure national food security, the rigid fertilizer demand still exists. It is expected that by 2015, the compound annual growth rate of chemical fertilizer production will be 0.9%. With the arrival of fertilization and the start of compound fertilizer, the market for nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, and potash fertilizer will improve. In addition, with the development of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for the fertilizer industry in the near future, the country will further raise the minimum grain purchase price in 2012 and increase its subsidies for agriculture. This will further stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers for farming, and the demand for downstream markets will further increase. Walking wang.

Food pressure stimulates fertilizer demand

In 2015, China’s population will reach 1.4 billion. In order to meet the rigid demand for food, the self-sufficiency rate of grain will be maintained at more than 95%. On the one hand, the state will increase the sown area of ​​crops; on the other hand, it will strive to increase the grain output per unit area. As a “food for food”, chemical fertilizer is the fastest, most effective, and most important measure for increasing production. The data showed that the increase in fertilizer production accounted for 30-50% of crop yields. Therefore, with the further increase in production per unit area, the demand for fertilizer will further increase.

Since 2010, China’s food prices have risen too fast, of which food prices have risen by 12.4%. Stimulated by a series of beneficial agricultural policies and continuously increasing the minimum purchase price of grain, grain production has also achieved a continuous growth for 7 years, with an average annual compound growth rate of up to 3.49%. The state has increased the enthusiasm of farmers for planting through the policy of benefiting farmers, and rising grain prices will inevitably lead to increases in prices and demand for fertilizers and other related industries. It is expected that the fertilizer market will continue to rise.

The Twelfth Five-Year Plan Promotes the Development

As an important agricultural resource, chemical fertilizers have a direct bearing on the development of agricultural production and the vital interests of the vast majority of farmers. They are listed as industries that the state encourages and develops. As a result, they are greatly affected by policies. Recently, the “Twelfth Five-year Development Plan for Chemical Fertilizer Industry” was formally introduced. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's fertilizer industry should achieve results in improving product concentration, optimizing structural products, promoting technological progress, and accelerating mergers and reorganizations.

Increased industrial concentration: The “Planning” proposes that by 2015, the number of nitrogen fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and compound fertilizers companies should be significantly reduced; the proportion of production capacity of large and medium-sized nitrogen fertilizer enterprises should be more than 80%; the proportion of large-scale phosphate fertilizer enterprises should exceed 70%; The potash fertilizer enterprise group has further grown in size.

Optimize the structure of varieties: encourage the development of compound fertilizers and special fertilizers required by formula fertilization, and attach importance to the development of trace element fertilizers and slow- and controlled-release fertilizers. The compound fertilizer and controlled release fertilizer industry will usher in development opportunities during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period.

Accelerate mergers and reorganizations: Gradually form a production and operation pattern dominated by large-scale fertilizer companies, and encourage large-scale enterprises to further expand their business scale and strength through mergers and acquisitions, elimination of backwardness, and construction of chemical fertilizer bases.

Nitrogen fertilizer companies face consolidation

In 2011, China’s urea production rose by 5.58% from the previous year to 26.561 million tons. The domestic nitrogen fertilizer market has recently been affected by supply and demand. Urea prices have fallen slightly, production costs have remained high, and exports have declined. At present, the national chemical fertilizer business reserves have already begun. It is expected that the cost of urea-preserved sales in the spring of next year will be around RMB 2100-2200/ton, an increase of RMB 200-300 over the same period of last year.

At present, the profits of urea production enterprises are being severely squeezed by the rise in coal prices. As coal prices, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and labor costs continue to climb, many of the urea production enterprises stop production, and their capacity utilization rate is less than 70%. Due to the resource and energy nature of nitrogen fertilizers, it belongs to agricultural products that the country attaches great importance to and must ensure stable domestic supply and prices. We cannot expect the country to relax its export policies and realize export sales to reach a balance between production and sales. Therefore, the competition in the domestic nitrogen fertilizer market has intensified and the integration speed in the industry has accelerated. Resource-friendly companies will benefit from it. Concerned about the future trend of stocks such as Yuntianhua, Chitianhua, Luxi Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng.

Resource advantages to the phosphate fertilizer industry

By 2007, China's phosphate reserves reached 3.7 billion tons, but the average grade of recoverable reserves was only 23%, far below the global average of 30%. 71% of China's phosphate ore is used for phosphate fertilizer production. There is room for price increase in phosphate rock prices. With the price of phosphate fertilizer having invisible ceilings and the future competition in the phosphate fertilizer market intensifying, phosphate fertilizer companies will have more resources if they can obtain upstream resources. Competitive Advantage.

As the existing production capacity can fully meet the domestic market's demand for agriculture before 2015, the “Draft for Phosphate Ammonium Production Access Criteria” and the “12th Five-Year Development Idea for Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry” announced in 2011 are proposed within 3 years. In principle, we will no longer construct or expand the installation of wet-process phosphoric acid plants, and the current domestic industry goal of “transfer of basic fertilizers to resource-producing areas” is more explicit. In recent years, China's phosphate fertilizer industry has developed rapidly. The domestic phosphate fertilizer production capacity has reached 20 million tons/year, and the proportion of excess production capacity has exceeded 100%. However, in the past four years, the trend of international phosphate fertilizer supply is tight. For example, the policy of moderately loose phosphate fertilizer on the basis of ensuring the domestic supply of phosphate fertilizer will be the golden opportunity for the development of phosphate fertilizer enterprises and global expansion. Attention will be given to Hubei Yihua and Xingfa Group.

Potash production has a monopoly

Due to the shortage of domestic potash fertilizer resources and the strong demand for potash fertilizer from crops in China, the application rate continues to grow at a relatively high rate. Therefore, China needs large quantities of imported potash fertilizer each year, and imports account for more than 50% of domestic consumption. The state announced that expediting the exploration of potash resources in China, developing and utilizing insoluble potassium mineral resources, accelerating the pace of “going out” of the potash fertilizer industry, and striving to build a production base of 2 million tons of potassium chloride overseas will promote the rapid development of the potash fertilizer industry.

Potash fertilizer is the industry with high industrial concentration in the fertilizer sub-sector. As of September 2011, the main business income of potash fertilizer manufacturing industry reached 15.19 billion yuan, total profit reached 5.47 billion yuan, and profit margin was 36.01%. At present, the domestic potash fertilizer production is mainly monopolized by the hands of several large-scale manufacturers. Salt Lake Group, a domestic manufacturer of potassium chloride, accounts for more than 80% of domestic production capacity. Domestic two-thirds of potassium needs to be met by imports. The expansion of potash fertilizer capacity will help increase the performance of Salt Lake and Huilong.

Compound fertilizer is the future theme of the industry

In the past ten years, the growth rate of compound fertilizer application in China was significantly higher than that of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, and chemical fertilizer application. It shows that with the spread and popularization of scientific fertilization and balanced fertilization knowledge, compound fertilizer is increasingly recognized by farmers. Fertilizer compounding rate is an important indicator to measure the development level of a country's chemical fertilizer industry and the level of agricultural development. At present, the compounding rate of chemical fertilizers in China is only 30%, far below 70% in Europe and the United States. According to the requirements of the “planning”, by 2015, China will The compounding rate of chemical fertilizers should be increased to about 40%, and the average annual growth rate of compound fertilizers in the next five years will reach 7%.

The threshold of compound fertilizer production technology is low, so the number of compound fertilizer production enterprises in China is numerous, the industry concentration is very low, and the entire industry is showing full competition. The upstream raw materials of compound fertilizer are mainly simple fertilizers such as urea, monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and potash fertilizer. The core competitive advantages of compound fertilizer enterprises are reflected in the smoothest sales channels in the industry and the advantages of upstream resources that resist the fluctuation of raw materials, and concern for compound fertilizers. Industry leader Stanley and Kim Jong-tah are in the future.

Slow-release fertilizer will usher in high growth

Slow-release fertilizers have the characteristics of improving fertilizer efficiency and reducing the use of chemical fertilizers. They play an important role in solving excessive resource consumption, reducing agricultural non-point source pollution, and reducing agricultural production costs. At present, the domestic controlled-release fertilizer production capacity is less than 2 million tons, which is less than 1% of the total domestic chemical fertilizer production capacity. With the development of domestic environmental protection requirements and related support policies, the market space for controlled-release fertilizers will be continuously enlarged.

At present, the biggest obstacle to the development of controlled-release fertilizers is the high price. In the future, the country is expected to introduce subsidy policies to promote slow-release fertilizers. The "Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2011 Edition)" published by the National Development and Reform Commission recently included slow-release fertilizers as priority development industries. The Ministry of Agriculture first introduced slow-release fertilizers as the main push technology, and the Ministry of Science and Technology included controlled-release fertilizers for the first time. "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" Technology Support Program, National Agricultural Technology Promotion Center promoted Jin Zhengda's demonstration of controlled-release fertilizer to 23 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), indicating that China's controlled-release fertilizer industry will usher in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. Leapfrogging development.

Precision Terminals

Precision Terminals,Cable Terminal Dies,Auto Terminal Connector Stamping,Flat Terminal Lug Stamping

DoHform Mold(China) Co,.Ltd. , https://www.dhform.com