Bearing development in the future depends mainly on high-end import substitution

According to the Voice of Economy “Transactional Live” report, Feng Fuzhang, a research fellow of China Citic Jiantou Machinery Industry, made a guest “Transactional Live” on December 6 to interpret the investment opportunities in the mechanical basic parts industry. Feng Fuzhang believes that the development space of the bearings during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is mainly It is relying on high-end import substitution.

Moderator: Yes, we also saw that in the planning process, bearing is clearly listed as a key industry in urgent need of development. Then it is also mentioned that by 2015, the sales of the bearing industry will reach 222 billion yuan. The average annual growth rate will be between 12% and 15%. What is the current status of the development of our country's bearing industry?

Feng Fuzhang: It is also said that from the perspective of production scale, China's bearing industry has ranked third in the world, and the amount is relatively large. However, there is still room for development in the high-end segment. I think the bearing industry is the most basic of the mechanical basic industry. An important sub-industry, it can be said that the mechanical basic parts are very important, then I think that in the "12th Five-Year Plan" bearing development space is mainly relying on high-end import substitution, there are mainly the following, like In the high-end CNC machine tool bearings, there are electric spindles, then the third is the basic bearings of high-power wind turbines, the fourth is the bearings of the heavy transport aircraft, the fifth is the heavy-duty helicopter bearings, I think these five Bearings are relatively large in terms of future development. The listed companies involved may be Axis Research, Tianma, and Wazhou. Among them, Axis Research and Tianma have both wind power and some machine tool spindles. The tile axis is basically involved in all the high-end bearings, but the tile axis is currently on the B shares. If you return to the A shares, it should be said It is more concerned about a listed one company.

Moderator: We just mentioned that bearings to pay attention to a listed company, Axis Research, we see that the performance of the announcement said that the 2011 net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is a year-on-year increase of 30%, and the company in recent years ROE has been declining. How do you see the company's future benefits from planning?

Feng Fuzhang: This year's performance has increased by 30% year-on-year. It should be said that the industry is still relatively good, because this year, whether it is the host or the three-base industry, the demand is not particularly strong, but also affects the level of gross margin, on the company itself. The company has a monopolistic position in special aerospace bearings. The domestic market share of bearings for rockets, satellites, and spacecrafts is basically 100%, and the company’s other high-end products are like precision group bearings and ceramics. Bearings are also the leading technology level in China. The company is the only domestic manufacturer in China that can compete with well-known foreign companies in terms of bearing core technology. I feel that if he says in the future that he is benefiting from the plan or what I just said, the first is a special subsidy, the second is the support of scientific research funds, and the third is the preferential taxation. The other is Like the construction of some public platforms and R&D platforms, the company will also play a role in signing or setting standards.

Moderator: Let's look at another listed company. Jinxi Axle announced that the third quarterly report company's operating income for the third quarter was 4.78 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.03%, and net profit attributable to the parent company owner was 5.67 million yuan. The year-on-year increase of 64.39%, the first three quarters of operating income was 1.055 billion yuan, an increase of 31.94% over the same period last year, net profit was 50.18 million yuan, an increase of 125.26%, then how do you know about the company's three quarterly earnings? Look?

Feng Fuzhang: The Jinxi Axle Company is strictly speaking not a three-base industry, but most of its main business is the axle business. It is also considered to be a relatively large-scale component related to the three-base industry. His three-quarters press reporter also mentioned just now. His performance is very good, but I think the main reason is still two reasons. The first one is that the base figure of last year was relatively low, because last year's demand included that the subsidiary he acquired did not contribute to the performance. Both factors contributed to the performance of last year. Not so good, so the small base this year reflects the possibility of a larger year-on-year increase. This is the first reason. The second is that his truck business this year has grown very fast this year. The relatively strong absorption of trucks this year was mainly due to the huge increase in the National Railways tender for the Ministry of Railways and the bidding for independent vehicle companies. The company also seized this opportunity. Therefore, the growth of performance is relatively fast. We expect that there will be a relatively stable growth in the demand for trucks in the future. However, the company is still in a state of technological transformation in other traditional businesses, especially as Baotou, which also leads to an important company this year. The gross margin of the business and axle business is only about 4.5%. However, looking back at the 2008 peak, the gross profit margin of the company's axle business was 22%, which is very large compared to the current 4.5%. However, in the future, the company’s headquarters and the Baotou North Road will complete the technical transformation. There will be room for recovery in business conditions, so I am optimistic about the future development of the company next year.