Statistics show that one third of China’s land has been contaminated by acid rain, two fifths of major river systems have become inferior five types of water, more than 300 million rural people cannot drink safe water, and more than 400 million urban residents breathe heavily polluted air. 15 million people have bronchitis and respiratory cancer. Some people have calculated that the economic losses caused by environmental pollution and ecological damage in China accounted for 15% of GDP in the year. Of the 20 most polluted cities in the World Bank listed in the 2001 World Development Report, China also accounted for 16. Therefore, from an ecological point of view, China’s environmental protection has reached the critical moment.
I remember that during the "6th Five-Year Plan" period, the country had a key scientific research project and it was forecasting "China in 2000". At that time, the central ministries and commissions used more than 400 experts and scholars to use mathematical models to make full-scale predictions on China 15 years later. In this way, the accuracy of the predictions of the year can now be verified. However, the results are rather intriguing: All predictions concerning economic development and construction (such as predictions that telecommunications, energy, transportation, and other infrastructure will become the “bottleneck†for sustainable development in China) will almost completely fail; and predictions regarding the prospects of the ecological environment (Also, air pollution, water pollution, soil degradation, desert expansion, dust storms, deforestation, and disappearance of species, etc.) almost all come true.
This is the case, except that the forecasters did not fully consider the problems brought about by industrialization and urbanization. The main problem is that the system, policies, and resource pricing problems in economic development have not changed much in the past decade or more. Judging from the system, there is a contradiction between the integrity of the environmental system and the fragmentation of the administrative system. The competition between regional interests and the interests of the departments and the current comparison mechanism of economic achievements have increased this contradiction; from the policy point of view, various Among economic development strategic plans and economic policies, environmental factors have not yet been considered and environmental costs have been reflected; from the perspective of resource use and pricing, the prices of primary resource products are relatively low, and social and public products such as the environment can be obtained free of charge. The environmental cost in the production cost of the enterprise is incomplete. This environment is priceless and the resources are cheap. This not only brings about waste and inefficiency, but also encourages extensive production and consumption methods. The environmental damage and compensation mechanism will not be able to talk about it. .
It can be said that the existence of the above problems makes the ecological security closely related to our lives pay a heavy price and even offset the benefits of economic growth. According to the World Bank’s predictions based on current development trends, the economic cost of a disease caused by coal-only pollution in 2020 will be US$390 billion, accounting for 13% of GDP. Taking the recent water pollution as an example, the economic losses caused by it will consume a lot of financial expenditure.
Without ecological security, there will be no human social security. Frequent environmental pollution incidents remind us once again that high-consumption, high-cost, environmentally-hazardous, high-growth economies are suicidal economic development models.
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